Law of Personal Freedom states: Do what you want as long as no harm is done.

This idea is the base philosophy for all Personal Freedom ideals, and it’s worked relatively well so far.

Example: We have laws against killing people and stealing from them, without much fuss about these laws infringing on Personal Freedom because we accept that our Personal Freedom ends where harm to another begins.

Fair enough.

But what happens when “harm to another” isn’t as immediate or direct as is a murder? What happens when the “harm” is a few actions away and several days down the road?

This is where things become more complex and morally fuzzy — and that’s exactly where we find ourselves today as we struggle with issues like COVID-19, climate change, gun rights, etc.

To fully explore this, let’s use The Butterfly Effect to help puzzle through why our Personal Freedom appears to be shrinking as we become a more technologically advanced, interconnected species.

The Butterfly Effect and Morality

1. Degrees of Consequence

The Butterfly Effect is used to describe the chain of events that can happen as a consequence of the smallest action. Classically, a butterfly flapping its wings today can put into motion a series of events that cause a tornado a few weeks from now.

Each action, beginning with the butterfly, triggers the next, and then the next action until the eventual tornado is formed. We can think of each distinct action in the sequence as a Degree of Consequence.

Example: If between the Butterfly flapping its wings and the tornado there are 10 different actions that had to occur, we can think of the tornado as being 10 Degrees of Consequence away from the Butterfly.

2. Probability of Consequence

However, there are other things aside from a tornado that could potentially happen as a consequence of each action. With each Degree of Consequence, our ability to accurately predict the formation of the tornado becomes less.

This can be called the Probability of Consequence.

Example: At 1 Degree of Consequence (I directly shoot someone), my Probability of Consequence is relatively high (let’s say 95%+) that they will die. Therefore at 1 Degree of Consequence with 95% Probability of Consequence, I am held responsible for my action and tried for murder. Because I have done harm to another, I have broken the Law of Personal Freedom and society agrees I was morally wrong and should be held responsible for my action.

The Moral Calculation of Harm

So, how accurately we can PREDICT the outcome of a series of actions is KEY to how we will move forward morally.

The more accurate our predictions are in terms of Degrees and Probability of Consequence, the more we could hold an individual responsible for their actions to that Degree.

This means we will be able to see “harm” at 2nd, 3rd, 4th Degrees with high Probability and our morally correct actions will be more limited than they are now at 1st Degree.

We can call this entire process the Moral Calculation of Harm.

The Real Question: To What Degree and Probability Are You Responsible?

Right now, many people believe their Personal Freedom is being unjustifiably eroded because Orders are starting to be imposed based on 2nd Degrees of Consequence, instead of just 1st.

The temporary restrictions placed on citizens during COVID-19 are perfect examples of this expanding Moral Calculation of Harm being utilized en mass for, arguably, the first time.

Example: “Stay at Home” Orders.

1st Degree Personal Freedom Defenders believe this is an infringement on their right to work, travel, and leave their homes at will. They believe they are causing no “Harm” by taking these actions, therefore their Personal Freedom should not be restricted.

2nd Degree Personal Freedom Defenders agree with these restrictive Orders because they believe that just because YOU may not be causing DIRECT (1st Degree) “Harm” to another, does not mean that YOU will not infect someone else with the virus who then goes on to infect someone else (2nd Degree) who has a compromised immune system and dies as a result of YOUR actions.

In this case, 2nd Degree Personal Freedom Defenders are holding individuals morally responsible for “harm” done to people who die as a result of TWO consequential actions — hence 2 Degrees of Consequence.

Italy, a 2nd Degree Personal Freedom Defender, made headlines in March 2020 when it said anyone who violated lock-down protocols could face up to 21 years in prison, essentially for murder.

This declaration sent shock waves around the world as it was a clear break from the 1st Degree Personal Freedom laws most people are used to.

Who is morally correct?

To what Degree of Consequence and Probability should we hold each other responsible for our actions?

As predictive technology becomes increasingly accurate at greater Degrees, THIS is the real question we will have to answer.

The Future: As Predictive Technology Expands, Personal Freedom Contracts

The human mind is incredibly limited in its ability to think in sequential, exponential outcomes.

In fact, we consider chess masters to be some of our greatest thinkers because they can, on average, see about 20 moves ahead.

20 Degrees of Consequence…and that’s with a lifetime of practice.

Computers, on the other hand, are designed to take in large amounts of data, find trends, and predict outcomes. As processing capabilities speed up, as they do exponentially each year, they become more accurate at increasing Degrees of Consequence.

So what does that mean for Personal Freedom?

If we continue to follow the classic Law of Personal Freedom, it’s logically going to shrink. The more we can predict future “harmful” outcomes of an action taken now, the more we will hold individuals morally responsible for the consequences of that action.

This is going to be an ever-evolving question with no cut-and-dry answer.

What Will You Do?

Will you hold on to your 1st Degree Personal Freedom rights — fully realizing the 2nd or 3rd Degree “harm” you are doing, thereby breaking the Law of Personal Freedom itself?

Or will you expand your Law of Personal Freedom to include greater Degrees of Consequence — knowing this will place greater restrictions on the actions you can morally take today?

How we answer this question as a species will dictate what kind of “Better World” we are capable of creating together.